During these trying days of the COVID-19 pandemic, we are being overwhelmed by internet sites (eg. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html) or TV pundits where we are looking at the hard data that is being received and sometimes not received and then having this data projected forward. All these are bio-statistical forecasts which try to predict the Corona virus survival chances in each country, such as the number of forecasted patients, the number of forecasted dead and the associated timelines for these events to happen. Terminology such as ‘flattening the curve”, ‘reaching the forecast apex by that date’, ‘and ‘we need to smoothen the trajectories of the curves’ have all come into common parlance among TV pundits, both experts and non-experts. We take these pronouncements at face value as we do not have the knowledge on how exactly these forecasts were derived.
In reality, no matter how hard forecasts try to provide accurate, unbiased estimations, they are often reliant on many unknown factors such as the following:
- Will the public continue to abide by confinement restrictions;
- Will the weather improve;
- Will the testing continue to expand;
If any of the assumptions based on the past data are wrong, then the forecast is going to be misleading at best and potentially damaging (at least economically) at worst. We have seen this recently in the constantly changing forecasts of death in the USA from 250,000 on down. Yet with all its shortcomings, forecasts are a crucially important tool as they provide clear targets to which we can strive. They also provide some order and logic when the world seems to be heading into chaos. This provides an emotional comfort zone for people who fear what is happening around them and more importantly what the future portends.
The experts in statistical forecasting at EBI Consulting understand the fear of the unknown future and help to try to allay those fears by helping companies figure out how best to cope in times of uncertainty such as these.
